Economic Analysis Seminar, Ana Moreno (CUNEF)
March 25, 2022

The seminar will be broadcast via Google Meets.

Department of Economic Analysis & ICAE Research Seminars (Thesis Seminar).

Economic Analysis Seminar, Ana Moreno (CUNEF)Economic Analysis Seminar, Ana Moreno (CUNEF).

Title: Delayed Childbearing and Urban Revival (joint with Clara Santamaría UC3M)

ABSTRACT

This paper highlights the role of delayed childbearing as an important driver of urban revival. While downtown neighborhoods provide shorter commuting times and more consumption amenities, limited housing space and schools’ worse quality considerably reduce the value of this location when children are born. We argue that as technological advances enabled women to postpone maternity, the life period in which individuals benefit the most from living downtown extended. Consequently, demand for downtown locations increased, contributing to urban revival. We first exploit exogenous variation in the cost of postponing childbearing to obtain causal estimates of the impact of delayed maternity on urban revival. Exogeneity comes from spatial variation in mandated insurance of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART). We find that a higher availability of ART in the state increases income downtown by 6.77% relative to the suburbs. We then employ this causal estimate to quantify a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates a fertility timing decision. We calculate counterfactual gentrification if the perceived probability of having children when mature had stayed constant at its 1980 level. We find that the increase in the perceived probability between 1980 and 2010 can generate 66% of the faster income growth downtown relative to the suburbs.

You can find the recording of the talk as well as previous sessions, papers, and the schedule of upcoming seminars at the seminar’s webpage.

https://www.ucm.es/icae/seminars

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